nerd girl blogs swine

Jennifer Gardy  notes the seeming disparity between the apparent mortality rates in Mexico and the U.S. / Canada. Since she posted this, a comparative analysis of the genomes indicates that the strains in Mexico and Canada are identical.  So why the Mexican deaths?

Some researchers suspect that pre-existing health factors in the
Mexican population might have influenced the disease's outcome, while one leading theory suggests that the increased mortality has to do with the Mexican patients' delays in seeing a physician.

I would also speculate that the number of deaths in Mexico could be the numerator over a very large denominator.  That is, the number of low level swine flu infections could be quite large among the Mexican population, but underreported due to poor access to health care and other confounding issues like the prevalence of other infectious diseases, with similar symptoms, among the poor.  In populations wracked with chronic respiratory and gastrointestinal infection, would low to moderate swine flu infections be distinguishable?  In that context, the actual mortality rate might be much lower than media reports.Child-licking-pig

Other good stuff in her post about tracking the outbreak by following money, and the sequencing efforts.

Swine flu: flu pandemics — if you’ve seen one, you . . .

Great flu coverage at Effect Measure

Right now the big picture isn't visible, but with the passage of days or a week, it should become clearer. The current spate of cases could burn itself out as warmer weather ensues. Flu is a highly seasonal disease, for reasons we don't understand. That wouldn't mean we were home free, however. Wherever flu hides in the "off season" (flu does find work in the southern hemisphere's winter), it can come back the following year. Those familiar with 1918 know there seems to have been a milder "herald wave" the previous spring which came back like a freight train in August.

Autism link faked

Via Balloon Juice, more evidence that the fears associated with the MMR vaccine are unfounded.  This really has been a public health travesty.  Vaccines are one simple and largely inexpensive route to protecting child and community health, and fake scares like this put millions in jeopardy, Cb9b5f03-5c95-4ef6-b48d-6456a35ba204
as preventable illness finds a safe haven in unvaccinated populations.  Exposing children needlessly to dangerous wild viruses is unconscionable. 

MMR doctor Andrew Wakefield fixed data on autism – Times Online.
THE doctor who sparked the scare over the safety of the MMR vaccine for children changed and misreported results in his research, creating the appearance of a possible link with autism, a Sunday Times investigation has found.

Confidential medical documents and interviews with witnesses have established that Andrew Wakefield manipulated patients’ data, which triggered fears that the MMR triple vaccine to protect against measles, mumps and rubella was linked to the condition.


And of course there is the cyclical, fundamentalist jihad against the polio vaccine, using fear and ignorance as a vector for misery. 

A lot more at Respectful Insolence.

Newsflash! The world is getting better!

It rare to see such a powerful and accessible use of statistics.  In this video,  Hans Rosling traces the march of global health and wealth since the early 60’s.  There is lots of gold here – my favourite nugget is the tremendous progress made in Vietnam since the war, and generally the rise of Asia from poverty to middle income.  Also illuminating is the diversity within regions and countries in the developing world.  Watch it all.  Certainly underscores the link between the removal of trade barriers and the prosperity of poor nations.

http://video.ted.com/assets/player/swf/EmbedPlayer.swf

Dengue Mosquito genome sequenced

Link: CBC: Genetic map of deadly mosquito revealed:

A complete map of the Aedes aegypti‘s DNA was published Thursday, just the second time scientists have sequenced the genome of a mosquito. A genetic sequence of Anopheles gambiae, the mosquito that carries malaria, was published in 2002.

Writing in the journal Science, the international team of scientists said the Aedes aegypti
genome is five times longer than that of its malaria-carrying relative
and carries unique proteins and genes that make it hardier than most
insects.

The breakthrough is the first step in a long process scientists hope
will lead to insecticides more capable of dealing with the insects or
genetically engineered versions of the insects that would be resistant
to the viruses that transmit the diseases….

Aedes aegypti is known to carry yellow fever and dengue fever.
Yellow fever kills about 30,000 people a year and is common in West and
Central Africa and parts of South America. Dengue fever kills about
25,000 people annually and occurs in about 100 countries…


Science you can use

Retrospectacle: A Neuroscience Blog highlights a new study linking oral sex to throat cancer.  Apparently a strain of HPV contracted orally increased the risk of contracting a form of throat cancer 32-fold.  Another reason to support the HPV vaccine.

Furthermore, drinking and smoking did not exacerbate the risk of
throat cancer in these patients—it was really *just* the virus.
Despite this increased risk, the overall risk even for people who
carried HPV, was very low. Its also important to note that the number
of patients in the study was low (100 cancer patients, 200 normal
controls) so the results should be replicated before you
make…er….adjustments in your lifestyle.

It would extremely interesting to determine if the HPV vaccine can
also protect against oropharyngeal cancer as well as cervical cancer.
Hopefully, this lab or another is working on detmining [sic] that.

Interesting side note: the authors also pointed out that, "Poor
dentition, infrequent toothbrushing,and infrequent dental visits have
been associated with an increased risk of squamous-cell carcinomas of
the head and neck." Wow! Not brushing your teeth increases your risk of
cancer?! I’m going to brush them right now!

You’ve been warned.

DNA variant puts Caucasians at higher risk for heart disease

What’s interesting to me about this find is the linkage, as described below, between this region of the genome and 2 major disease groups.  Pure speculation but this region perhaps is linked to a nutritional function that was beneficial in times of scarcity and lethal now in a world of plenty, as both CVD and diabetes are associated with food abuse.   Link: globeandmail.com:

Two massive and independent studies have discovered a significant
new risk factor for heart disease — a menacing hunk of DNA that half of
all Caucasians carry.

Researchers found the heart risk linked to this genetic trait held
up regardless of whether other well-known signs of susceptibility, such
as high blood pressure, smoking or high cholesterol, are present.

As a result, the finding raises the prospect of a genetic test to
help identify people at high risk of heart disease and measures to
prevent it. It could also lead to a better understanding of the biology
behind the world’s No. 1 killer, since no one yet knows how this
genomic quirk works….

Based on research involving 23,000 people in Canada, the United
States and Denmark, scientists found that 50 per cent of Caucasians
carried one copy of an altered stretch of chromosome 9, and as a
result, their risk of developing heart disease rose by 15 to 20 per
cent. A quarter of Caucasians carried two copies and faced an increased
risk of as much as 40 per cent….

…Meanwhile, in a coincidence that has even top geneticists surprised
at the odds, three different groups reported last week that this same
region of chromosome 9 could also raise the risk of Type 2 diabetes.

Francis Collins, director of the U.S. National Human Genome Research
Institute and one of the diabetes investigators, said: "I think this is
a stunner. This is like the seat of the soul of the genome. It seems
like this one place carries all of that weight for two very common and
very dangerous diseases.

"I never would have guessed that we would end up coalescing, zeroing
in on the same 50,000 base pairs out of three billion [chemical units
that make up DNA]…"

Shameful

Infant mortality in Mississippi has risen to 11.4 / 1000, up from 9.7 the previous year, worse than  places like Costa Rica  (9.4), Ukraine (9.5), and Bosnia (9.6). Inexcusable in a wealthy, modern, country.  Rates are similarly far too high in the Canadian territories of Nunavut (16) and Yukon (11).

Link: Infant Mortality Rising in Deep South in US.:


In Mississippi itself, infant deaths among blacks rose to 17 per
thousand births in 2005 from 14.2 per thousand in 2004, while those
among whites rose to 6.6 per thousand from 6.1.

The overall jump in Mississippi meant that 65 more babies died in 2005 than in the previous year, for a total of 481. …..

….
The main causes of infant
death in poor Southern regions included premature and low-weight
births; Sudden Infant Death Syndrome, which is linked to parental
smoking and unsafe sleeping positions as well as unknown causes and congenital defects….


…Poverty has climbed in Mississippi in recent years, and things are
tougher in other ways for poor women, with cuts in cash welfare and
changes in the medical safety net.

Dr. William Langston, an obstetrician at the Mississippi Department of Health, said the state was working to extend prenatal care
and was experimenting with new outreach programs. But, he added,
"programs take money, and Mississippi is the poorest state in the
nation." …

…Oleta Fitzgerald, southern regional director for the Children’s Defense
Fund, said: "When you see drops in the welfare rolls, when you see
drops in Medicaid and children’s insurance, you see a recipe for disaster. Somebody’s not eating, somebody’s not going to the doctor and unborn children suffer."

In 2004, Governor Haley Barbour came to office promising not to raise
taxes and to cut Medicaid. Face-to-face meetings were required for
annual re-enrollment in Medicaid and CHIP, the children’s health insurance program; locations and hours for enrollment changed, and documentation requirements became more stringent.

As a result, the number of non-elderly people, mainly children, covered
by the Medicaid and CHIP programs declined by 54,000 in the 2005 and
2006 fiscal years.